Platinum and palladium are metals that are generally used interchangeably in the industrial segment. Therefore, an increase in the price of one will -in most cases- cause a decrease in the price of the other.
The reason why platinum prices have remained flat while palladium prices have increased after 2015 is due to this connection between them.
In our first palladium chart, we can see how palladium was overpriced from 2016 to mid-2021, from $482 to $3,014, which is 6.25 times that price. Since then, there has been a significant decline of 3.15 times.
When we look at the same chart with dollar inflation correction, there is no significant difference between it and the previous chart, as not much time has passed since the last rise. The bottom level is $641, and the top is $3,556.
Our current chart is the Gold/Palladium Ratio Chart. It is understood that a triple peak has been reached since 2011. I believe that gold will exceed these levels and increase the difference. In February 2020, palladium reached its peak against gold. Therefore, we encounter a value below 1, namely 0.61.
In this chart we have the opportunity to see blue platinum and red palladium in the same picture. While the price of platinum was moving in a horizontal band in 2016, look at how palladium rose. After its peak in April 2011, it fell so much that it became equal to the price of platinum once more.
We can follow this development much better in the Platinum/Palladium Ratio Chart. The latest level is 0.99. In other words, the market prices of platinum and palladium are almost equal. In recent months, sometimes platinum and sometimes palladium have been going up. In October 2012, platinum reached its peak value with 2.62, and in February 2020, palladium reached its peak with 0.31.
I expect platinum to rise to 2.00 again, or even higher. The Platinum/Palladium Ratio Table, which has been created since 1991, has a decent backround that strengthens my belief. I am not sure if you agree or not!
The technical explanation for me giving platinum a higher chance of rising than palladium in the coming period was our previous tables. We will look at the fundamental reasons of this thought in our Platinum, Palladium publication in February 2025. In this context, we will evaluate the supply/demand balance, deficiencies and surpluses on the supply side through future projections.
No comments:
Post a Comment